Dear Neighbors:
I hope you are enjoying Groundhog Day – an occasion that reminds me of the eponymous movie as we watch a new Presidential administration begin with the same drama and chaos we remember from the incumbent’s previous one. In this week’s letter I will discuss the State’s implementation of the Act on Climate.
A. The Act On Climate Framework
During the 2021 session (before you elected me to office), the General Assembly passed the Act on Climate, which committed Rhode Island to become a “net zero carbon” state by 2050. To reach that outcome, the Act set intermediate requirements of a reduction from 1990-level emissions of 45% by 2030 and 80% by 2040. The Act established the Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council (or “EC4”), an interagency working group assigned the task of measuring the State’s compliance with these benchmarks.
B. Reducing Emissions In The Transportation Sector
In 2022, the EC4 published a Climate Update, which developed a greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) inventory distributed across eight economic sectors, led by transportation (39.7%), residential heating (19.3%) and electricity production (18.9%). When the Department of Transportation (RIDOT) appeared before the Senate Finance Committee in 2023, I asked the Director whether RIDOT was on track to comply. In 2024, he informed the Committee that RIDOT had developed Decarbonization Plan and Carbon Reduction Strategy that would meet the Act’s requirements. The latter document contains (beginning at page 65) a collection of public comments that question, among other things, the methodology and accuracy of RIDOT’s emissions (and emissions reduction) model, and RIDOT’s choice of initiatives.
C. Issues With The Transportation Sector Implementation Model
Even if one accepts RIDOT’s methodology, some key assumptions appear to be overoptimistic. For example, the emissions reduction schedule set forth on Slide 14 of the Decarbonization Plan depends critically on a massive conversion to electric cars based on “ACCII”, a California program which (as laid out at Slide 60 of the Carbon Reduction Strategy) requires 35% of new cars sold in 2028 to be electric, with that percentage increasing to 100% by 2035. This does not appear to be realistic. According to Edmunds, 7.8% of Rhode Island’s cars on the road in 2023 were electric, compared to 26% in California. I believe any realistic model of transportation sector emissions requires a reduction in the number of private vehicle miles driven in addition to any realistic projected reduction in average emissions per vehicle mile. This in turn will require, among other things, a much stronger public transportation system.
D. Next Steps
This year, the EC4 is developing an overall Climate Action Strategy that will develop a comprehensive emissions model for all sectors and present recommended policies to achieve the Act on Climate’s mandates. The EC4 held its first public engagement meeting on January 9, and the public can go to the EC4 Climate Change website to learn more about its work and the schedule of future meetings. On the legislative front, I introduced Resolution S-23 to establish a special Senate study commission to review and oversee the State’s implementation of the Act on Climate, to ensure that this critical blueprint for our State’s future becomes a reality.