The challenges brought by the snow storm often brought out the best in people, from the heroic efforts of those who worked around the clock to clear away our streets to the many friends and neighbors who went to great lengths to help those around them. Our return to almost normal in less than a week places us well ahead of the State’s experience during the Blizzard of 1978. With that said, I believe we have opportunities to learn from our experience.
1. My experience getting home
Lauren and I traveled to San Francisco last weekend to visit our son. We originally booked a return flight for Monday, but changed it to Sunday after initial weather reports. That flight was canceled, and we could not find any others back to Boston until Wednesday. Instead, we took a flight Sunday to Washington, DC. On Monday, we rented a car and drove to Springfield, Mass. on a route that kept us inland from the worst of the storm. On Tuesday, after the Governor lifted the travel ban, we returned the car to T.F. Green Airport and took an Uber to our neighborhood. The last 2½ blocks to our house were unplowed. We covered half of that distance on foot through paths cut into waist-deep snow, as captured in this Video by Providence Journal columnist Mark Patinkin, and the second half by cutting our own paths through the 3 foot hight snow piles. The entire journey took 50 hours.
2. Our neighborhood’s experience after the storm
When I returned on Tuesday afternoon, I began hearing from neighbors concerned about their inability to leave their homes, and the lack of clarity as to when the streets would be plowed. The Mayor’s office and our East Side City Council members provided us with timely email updates, but for the first few days the City was unable to provide a clear timetable of the snow clearing project. (If you have done so already, I encourage you to sign up for email updates from our City Councilors through their websites: John Goncalves Jill Davidson Sue Anderbois.) By Wednesday, the Mayor’s office provided more specific information with these FAQ’s, which predicted that most residential streets would be cleared for at least one lane of traffic in the coming days. My street opened up in the mid-afternoon on Wednesday, and to my knowledge most residential streets were accessible on Thursday.
3. The lack of advance notice
While the State and the City made it possible for most of us to leave our homes by Thursday, we can ask why we had such little notice or warning to prepare. I believe part of the explanation has to do with the weather forecasts we received.
a. The speed of the storm
In this Chart that I compiled of National Weather Service (NWS) data, I highlight in blue the depth of snow at T.F. Green Airport in hours leading up to and through the storm. You can see that there were 5 inches of residual snow on the ground as of 6:51 p.m on Sunday, February 22 with calm weather. The storm began soon after that, dropping sixteen inches of additional snow in blizzard conditions by 5:51 Monday morning, February 23. That was followed by sixteen more inches in blizzard conditions during the seven hours that followed (12:51 p.m.).
The City tried to plow during the blizzard, but the conditions were too hazardous for the drivers. This prevented the City from accomplishing much before the blizzard conditions lifted on Monday afternoon. As a result, the City could not begin systematic plowing until there were more than 30 inches of snow on the ground. Most of the trucks available to the City and its contractors lack the capacity to plow this volume of snow, and the volume required plans to remove the snow rather than just move it. This left the City with a sharply reduced fleet of vehicles that required longer amounts of time to address the City’s 1600 streets.
b. The lack of accurate forecasts
In the meantime, the National Weather Service forecasts did not predict the magnitude of the storm. This Chart compiles the NWS forecasts for the relevant times. As you can see, on Friday, the NWS predicted a 3-inch snowstorm, which it upgraded to 13-17 inches on Saturday morning. It was not until Saturday afternoon that NWS warned of a blizzard, at that time predicting accumulations of 1-2 feet. Aside from a minor adjustment on Sunday morning, the NWS did not increase its snowfall prediction until the blizzard was in full force early Monday morning. (To be fair to NWS, I have read articles that describe the difficulties in predicting snowfall amounts, though I do not know whether it is typical for the forecast to be off by as much as it was here.)
4. Consequences of inadequate notice
This lack of advance notice created problems for both the City and for residents. It deprived the City of the opportunity to plan its response, though it is not clear how much that notice could have accelerated its response. More significantly, it affected our planning as residents. Had we known a few days in advance that we were going to be blanketed with more snow than the Blizzard of 1978, we could have prepared better for three or more days of isolation in our homes. For example, I know of neighbors who have home health aides who normally rotate on eight-hour shifts. This became impossible during the storm, and created unexpected hardships for both the aides and their clients. Here, better notice could have made a significant difference.
5. Our opportunity to learn from this experience
In many ways, we had a “perfect storm” that made our ability to respond significantly more difficult. I hope and believe, however, that our City government will review what happened and take from that review the best possible lessons to help us when the next storm comes our way.